While you were sleeping, Australia's central bank hiked interest rates.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.10% from 3.85% in a razor-thin 5-4 vote, per Bloomberg. It's the first time the RBA has delivered back-to-back rate hikes since mid-2023. Governor Michele Bullock was blunt about the reasoning: inflation was already too high before the war in the Middle East sent oil prices skyward. The energy shock just made it worse.
Two of Australia's big four banks, ANZ and NAB, now expect another hike in May to 4.35%.
This matters beyond Australia because it sets a tone. Central banks globally are staring at the same problem: inflation that was supposed to be fading is getting a second wind from $100-plus oil. And today, the Fed begins its own two-day policy meeting.
Here's what else is moving this morning.
U.S. futures are relatively flat in pre-market trading. The big wait is tomorrow at 2 PM ET, when the Fed announces its rate decision, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM. Markets widely expect rates to hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. The real action will be in the updated dot plot, the quarterly projections that show where each Fed official sees rates heading. This is the first dot plot that has to account for the Iran conflict, surging oil prices, and the administration's 15% global tariff. It's also one of Powell's final meetings as chair. His term ends in May, with Kevin Warsh widely reported as a leading candidate to replace him.
Brent crude is trading around $104-106 per barrel, according to Al Jazeera reporting, after dipping to around $92 on Monday. That dip didn't last. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product exports, has seen flows plunge since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began February 28. The IEA describes current transit volumes as a trickle.
The first meatpacking strike in 40 years kicked off Monday in Greeley, Colorado. About 3,800 workers at a JBS-owned beef plant walked out after their union, UFCW Local 7, said the company offered average annual wage increases below 2%, well under Colorado's inflation rate. The plant is one of the largest in the country. The strike is planned for two weeks but could extend, according to Colorado Public Radio. With beef supply chains already tight, this is worth watching.
And a quiet regulatory shift: the SEC is preparing a proposal to make quarterly earnings reports optional, per the Wall Street Journal. Companies would have the choice to report just twice a year. The EU and UK dropped mandatory quarterly reporting roughly a decade ago. The SEC could publish the proposal as soon as next month, with a public comment period to follow.
Your watch list for today: The Fed meeting kicks off behind closed doors. Oil prices will react to any Strait of Hormuz developments. And keep an eye on how the JBS strike ripples through beef futures.
Useful this morning: The CME FedWatch Tool tracks real-time market pricing for the Fed's next move. Bookmark it before tomorrow's decision.
