Oil just hit its highest level in over a year and the Dow dropped more than 1,100 points. But the real story is what's moving underneath the headlines.
Iran's state media claims the IRGC Navy struck a U.S. oil tanker in the Persian Gulf early Thursday morning. The strike has not been independently confirmed by the Pentagon or any Western source. But the claim alone was enough to send WTI crude spiking 8% above $80 a barrel. Brent crude topped $85. Hundreds of ships remain stuck in the Gulf despite U.S. promises to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Dow fell 1,124 points. The S&P 500 dropped 1.3%. The Nasdaq slid 1.3%.
Not everything went down. Here are the five trends we are watching today.
Energy is back above $80 and the trade is widening
Oil has not traded at these levels since January 2025. Iran says there will be no negotiations and no surrender. Reports suggest Iran has enough drones to disrupt Gulf shipping for months.
Exxon and Chevron are positioned to benefit directly from sustained high prices. The SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF and the Oil and Gas Exploration ETF are both catching bids.
On the other side of the trade, airlines are getting hit hard. Citi downgraded American Airlines this week, warning that higher jet fuel costs will eat into earnings estimates. The spread between energy longs and airline shorts has not been this wide since 2022.
The bigger picture is inflation. If oil stays above $80 for more than a few weeks, the rate cut timeline the market has been pricing in starts to fall apart.
Broadcom defies the selloff and surges 7 percent on a $100 billion AI roadmap
In a sea of red, Broadcom was the standout.
The company reported record fiscal first quarter 2026 earnings. CEO Hock Tan laid out a path to $100 billion in AI chip revenue by 2027 and announced a new partnership with OpenAI.
This matters beyond one stock. It signals that enterprise AI spending is not slowing down even as geopolitics shake everything else. Nvidia held roughly flat on the day, which in this kind of environment counts as strength.
The AI infrastructure buildout remains the strongest secular trend in the market. War or no war, companies are still spending aggressively on AI chips.
The AI chip export story that is flying under the radar
While everyone watched oil prices Thursday, Bloomberg reported that the White House has drafted regulations that would require permits for AI semiconductor sales to anywhere in the world. Not just China. Anywhere.
Nvidia dropped 1.5 percent on the news. Oracle rose on plans to cut thousands of jobs amid what the company described as an AI-related cash crunch.
If these regulations move forward, every chipmaker selling internationally would need government approval for each sale. This has the potential to reshape the entire semiconductor supply chain. It is arguably a bigger long-term story for the tech sector than the Middle East conflict, but it has not hit mainstream headlines yet.
Berkshire starts buying its own stock and the new CEO puts in $15 million of his own money
Berkshire Hathaway resumed share repurchases for the first time since 2024.
New CEO Greg Abel confirmed he consulted Warren Buffett on both the valuation and the timing before authorizing the buybacks. Abel also personally purchased $15 million worth of Berkshire stock.
Berkshire does not buy back shares often. When it does, it is because internal models say the stock is trading below intrinsic value. Buffett has said repeatedly that repurchases should only happen when that condition is met.
The signal is not subtle.
South Korea swings 24 percent in 48 hours
The KOSPI crashed 12 percent on Wednesday in its worst session in decades. Then it rebounded nearly 10 percent on Thursday. Samsung gained 11 percent. SK Hynix gained nearly 11 percent.
The catalyst was South Korea's heavy dependence on energy imports, which made it uniquely vulnerable to Middle East disruption fears. When a New York Times report suggested Iran had signaled some willingness to engage in talks, the bounce was immediate and violent.
If you follow semiconductors, Korean market volatility is a leading indicator. When Samsung and SK Hynix swing this hard, it ripples through every chip name in the U.S.
One more thing worth noting. China set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5 to 5 percent this week. That is the lowest target on record going back to the early 1990s. Persistent deflation, trade tensions with the U.S., and weakening domestic demand are all weighing. Anything below 5 percent would represent the slowest growth China has posted in more than 30 years. Commodities traders, particularly in copper and iron ore, should be paying close attention.
The VonTrend bottom line
Today is a story of two forces. War-driven oil inflation on one side. AI-driven tech resilience on the other.
Energy and defense are catching real capital, not just headlines. But the AI chip export permit story is the one to watch. If those draft regulations move forward, the semiconductor map gets redrawn.
Tomorrow morning the February nonfarm payrolls report drops. If the labor market shows cracks while oil is pushing past $80, the Fed faces a much harder decision. That tension between rising energy costs and potential economic softening is the setup that could define the rest of March.
Spot the satisfactory. Make the move.
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