Kharg Island, Jensen Huang, and the Fed — All in One Week

THE U.S. STRUCK KHARG ISLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. Iran's primary oil export hub. That escalation sent oil higher again this morning and the White House is now threatening to expand strikes to broader energy infrastructure if Tehran keeps interfering with the Strait. The one piece of news that could actually move oil lower: reports are circulating that the U.S. is close to announcing a coalition of countries to escort commercial ships through the Strait. If that gets confirmed today, watch crude drop fast.

JENSEN HUANG SPEAKS AT 11 AM PACIFIC. Nvidia's GTC 2026 keynote is today at the SAP Center in San Jose — two hours, livestreamed, 39,000 attendees from 190 countries. The market is looking for one specific thing: proof that AI data center demand is organic and accelerating, not circular. Oracle already gave the first data point two weeks ago. If Huang delivers the second one today with updates on Vera Rubin and the agentic AI roadmap, this could be the catalyst that breaks the three-week losing streak for tech. NVDA is sitting about 11.5% below its all-time high right now.

THE FED MEETS WEDNESDAY. Rate cut odds are essentially zero but the statement and dot plot will matter more than usual. The Fed is caught between a weakening labor market that says cut and energy-driven inflation that says hold. Any signal that stagflation is now their base case could be the most bearish thing they could do this week — even without touching rates.