Good morning.
Markets are taking a breath after one of the wildest Mondays in recent memory. The Dow cratered nearly 900 points intraday before staging a late recovery.
This morning, futures are pointing slightly lower — S&P down about 0.4% at the open — as traders try to figure out what's real and what's noise.
Here are 3 things worth watching today:
OIL IS THE MARKET RIGHT NOW. Crude hit $120 a barrel to start the week before pulling back hard to around $90. The catalyst: Trump signaled the U.S. military operation in Iran may be nearing its end. But this morning a tanker explosion near Abu Dhabi has traders second-guessing that. Watch oil — it's setting the tone for everything else right now.
ORACLE REPORTS TONIGHT. With AI infrastructure dominating the narrative, Oracle's cloud and AI commentary after the bell could move the broader tech trade. Nvidia's "Vera Rubin" platform and a reported $100 billion data center deal with OpenAI already has chips on fire. Oracle could add fuel or cool it down.
CPI WEDNESDAY. The inflation report tomorrow morning may be the most important data point of the week. The Fed is stuck — energy prices just spiked, services inflation is already sticky, and rate cut expectations are starting to crack. Tomorrow's print will either calm the market or add to the chaos.
Setup to watch: Energy names are worth eyeing today. Oil pulled back sharply but the conflict is unresolved. A bounce in crude from the $88-90 range could set up a short-term trade in XLE or individual refiners.
Stay sharp out there.
— Sunrise | VonTrend
