Good morning.
Markets are stuck. The S&P is flat, the Dow is barely negative, and nothing is moving cleanly while the Strait of Hormuz stays in the headlines. The one bright spot is the Nasdaq, which is getting a lift from Oracle alone.
Here are 3 things worth watching today:
THE STRAIT IS THE STORY — AGAIN. Iran struck three cargo ships overnight. Mines are reportedly being planted along the Strait. Defense Secretary Hegseth said this morning that today will be the most intense day of strikes yet. The IEA is proposing a record release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to knock oil back down — and Brent is still sitting above $90. That tells you everything you need to know about how the market is reading this conflict right now.
ORACLE IS UP 13%. It reported after the bell last night and blew past estimates. The bigger number: management raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion, a full $1 billion above what analysts expected. In an environment where the AI spending narrative has been getting questioned, Oracle just validated it. Watch how Nvidia, Microsoft, and the broader cloud infrastructure names trade off this.
CPI CAME IN CLEAN. February inflation was 2.4% year over year, exactly what was expected. Core came in at 2.5%. No upside surprise — which is the best the market could have hoped for given oil prices. The problem is the CPI data doesn't yet capture the oil shock. The March print is going to be the one that matters.
Setup to watch: Energy producers with domestic exposure are quietly holding up well while the broader market chops around. With the Strait disrupted and IEA reserves not moving the needle, names like Valero and CF Industries are worth keeping on the radar.
Stay sharp out there.
