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Traders had all weekend to think and no ability to act. This morning they get the tape back with three days of headlines stacked on top of each other. Here is what is moving.
What matters:
• Futures are pointing sharply lower. Trump extended the Strait of Hormuz deadline from April 6 to Tuesday at 8 PM ET, now explicitly including power grid and export infrastructure targets. Iran says the strait stays closed until it receives full compensation for war damages. The timeline shift gives traders one more day of uncertainty, not one more day of clarity.
• Friday’s March payrolls, 178,000 against a 59,000 consensus, could not be traded. Good Friday shut the NYSE and Nasdaq. Today is the first session where that number gets priced alongside oil above $110 and the ISM Manufacturing Prices subindex at 78.3. Strong employment plus surging input costs removes the Fed’s last path to a rate cut this year.
• The escalation ladder keeps climbing even as diplomatic channels through Oman, Pakistan, and Egypt stay active. A potential 45-day ceasefire framework has been discussed through Gulf intermediaries, but the odds of a deal before Tuesday look slim.
• Thursday’s close: the S&P 500 finished at 6,582.69. The Dow ended at 46,504.67. The Nasdaq closed at 21,879.18. All three snapped five-week losing streaks on the shortened trading week.
The week’s calendar is heavy.
ISM Services PMI lands this morning. If services inflation mirrors the 78.3 reading from manufacturing, the stagflation pricing accelerates. FOMC minutes from the March meeting drop Wednesday at 2 PM ET, and the market will parse every word for how the committee views the oil shock’s pass-through into inflation expectations. The March meeting held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% with a median projection of one cut by year end. Whether even that one cut survives the current data is the question this week answers.
Wednesday also brings Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings, the first major airline to report in a quarter where jet fuel costs spiked roughly 60% from late February. Analysts expect roughly $0.64 EPS on around $14.8 billion in revenue. But the cost guidance matters more than the backward-looking numbers. If Delta signals margin compression from sustained energy costs, the repricing spreads to every transport and logistics name in the index.
Energy keeps leading, but the names are broadening.
The energy sector has led every other S&P sector by more than 30 percentage points year to date. Within the space, the opportunity set has expanded beyond the names that dominated the first few weeks of the conflict.
ConocoPhillips (COP) has returned roughly 40% year to date and broke to an all-time high above $133 in late March. Its sub-$40 breakeven per barrel means profitability holds in virtually any oil scenario, and the Marathon merger integration gives it scale that compounds as prices stay elevated.
Devon Energy (DVN) leads the sector at roughly 53% year to date, driven by Permian Basin production growth and a free cash flow yield near 12%. For income-focused investors in an environment where the Fed is on hold, that yield competes directly with fixed income.
Phillips 66 (PSX) runs the same domestic-barrel refining advantage that has powered the refining trade since Hormuz disruption began. No Middle East processing exposure. Input costs priced off WTI, which now carries a structural premium over Brent because it does not need to transit the Gulf.
On the defense side, General Dynamics (GD) and L3Harris (LHX) both carry Overweight ratings from Morgan Stanley. The conflict has destroyed at least seven American aircraft to date. That pace of equipment attrition accelerates replacement procurement timelines in ways that benefit prime contractors for years, not quarters. BWX Technologies (BWXT), the sole supplier of U.S. naval nuclear reactor components, sits in a category where demand tracks submarine production schedules rather than annual budget politics.
The numbers at the open. WTI is trading around $112 per barrel. Brent is around $110. The 10-year yield is around 4.42%. Gold is near $4,700 per ounce. Bitcoin is holding around $67,000.
This is the week that sets Q2. The catch-up trade hits at 9:30. FOMC minutes recalibrate rate expectations Wednesday. And the Tuesday deadline hangs over all of it.
More tomorrow.
