At 8:30 this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March jobs report into a market that cannot react. The NYSE and Nasdaq are dark for Good Friday. The bond market closes at noon. And the next trading session is Monday, April 6, the same day Trump’s pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure expires.
The consensus expects roughly 60,000 payrolls added, a modest rebound from February’s 92,000-job decline that was dragged down by the Kaiser Permanente nursing strike. Those roughly 30,000 striking workers returned in late February and should boost the March headline. ADP’s private payrolls print landed at 62,000 earlier this week, roughly in line.
The number matters. The 72 hours between its release and Monday’s open matter more.
What matters:
Thursday’s close: the S&P 500 edged up 0.11% to 6,582.69. The Dow slipped 61 points to 46,504.67. The Nasdaq gained 0.18% to 21,879.18. A volatile session that flattened out after Iran said it is working with Oman on a protocol to monitor Hormuz traffic.
Brent crude is trading around $109 per barrel. WTI is around $103. The national average for gasoline crossed $4 per gallon this week for the first time since 2022, up more than $1 from the end of February.
The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.37%. Gold continued its steep selloff, now down more than 20% from January’s record high above $5,600. Bitcoin is holding around $68,000.
The setup for Monday. A print near consensus keeps the Fed locked in place. The labor market is cooling but not breaking, which means no rate cuts while the ISM Prices subindex sits at 78.3 and oil stays above $100. A surprise to the upside sharpens the stagflation trade: rising input costs, resilient employment, and a central bank with no room to act. A miss to the downside reopens recession pricing at the worst possible moment, just as the April 6 deadline arrives with no ceasefire framework in place.
The UN Security Council was supposed to vote today on a Bahraini resolution authorizing “all defensive means necessary” to secure the Strait of Hormuz. That vote got delayed. China has already signaled opposition, calling the use-of-force language a legitimization of “unlawful and indiscriminate” action. If the resolution fails or gets diluted further, the physical oil market tightens into next week with no diplomatic relief valve. If something concrete passes, energy sells off hard. Traders will have all weekend to game out both scenarios with a fresh jobs number in hand and no ability to position until Monday morning.
One story outside the oil complex worth watching: SpaceX raised its IPO valuation target above $2 trillion, according to Bloomberg, which would make it the largest public offering in history. The confidential SEC filing from earlier this week puts it on track for a June listing ahead of expected IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic. The ripple effects into venture pricing, AI valuations, and defense contracting are just beginning.
Energy has outperformed every other S&P sector since the conflict began, and nothing else is close. Defense names RTX, Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) held gains through Thursday. Refiners Valero (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), both with zero Middle East refining exposure, keep benefiting from the widening spread between domestic crude and the physical premiums Asian buyers are paying. Monday’s open will tell you whether the market believes the war is ending or extending. If defense and energy names sell off, that is the signal. If they hold, the positioning is telling you more than the headlines.
Worth bookmarking: The BLS Employment Situation Summary for the full March breakdown when it posts at 8:30. And the FRED 10-year Treasury tracker for the yield that is repricing mortgage rates, equity multiples, and every duration-sensitive position on the board.
