The U.S. Just Blockaded Iran. Here's What It Means for Oil and Your Portfolio.

Weekend peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan collapsed without a deal. The two sides could not agree on key issues. Those included ending uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities, cutting funding to proxy groups, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

With talks dead, U.S. Central Command announced a full naval blockade starting at 10 a.m. ET Monday. The blockade covers all ships going to or from Iranian ports. Ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations can still move freely.

President Trump warned that any Iranian vessel approaching the blockade zone would be "eliminated." Iran's Revolutionary Guard has vowed to retaliate.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 7% to $102 a barrel. That is a 40% increase since the war began six weeks ago. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, climbed 7.8% to $104.

About 20% of the world's oil and natural gas normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Even though non-Iranian ships can still transit, traders are pricing in the risk of a wider disruption. Analysts warn prices could climb further if the blockade drags on or if Iran retaliates against shipping in the region.

More than 5,000 people have died since fighting broke out in late February. At least 3,375 have been killed in Iran from U.S. and Israeli strikes. Lebanon's health ministry reports 2,089 deaths since Israel expanded operations there on March 2.

Energy stocks are the obvious play. Oil above $100 means higher profits for producers and pipeline operators. But it also means higher costs for consumers, airlines, and manufacturers. That pressure can drag down the broader market.

Asian markets fell overnight on the news. U.S. stock futures pointed lower ahead of Monday's open. Defense stocks have been strong since the conflict started and may continue to benefit.

The key variable now is duration. A short blockade that forces Iran back to the table could calm markets quickly. A prolonged standoff could keep oil elevated for months and raise recession fears.

This is no longer a regional conflict. The Hormuz blockade makes it a global energy event. Watch oil prices, watch for any Iranian retaliation, and watch for signs of new talks. Until one of those moves, expect volatility.