The US-Israel war with Iran is now in its sixth week. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. And the situation escalated significantly over the weekend.
Here is where things stand as of Monday, April 6th.
Trump set a new deadline and Iran rejected it
On Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social threatening to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. He set a deadline of Tuesday at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
Iran's response: the strait will reopen when the country is "fully compensated" for war damages. Iran's top military command warned that if attacks on civilian targets continue, its next response will be "much more devastating and widespread."
This is the third time Trump has set a deadline for reopening the strait. The first was March 21. He extended it to April 6. He has now pushed it again to Tuesday evening. Each deadline has come and gone without the strait reopening.
A 45-day ceasefire proposal is being discussed
According to NBC News, a proposal for a 45-day ceasefire has been sent to both Iran's Foreign Minister and Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff. A senior White House official confirmed it is "one of many things being discussed" but said Trump has not signed off on it.
Iran has said it will not engage in direct talks while attacks are escalating. Tehran has stated that "negotiation is in no way compatible with ultimatum, crime, or the threat to commit war crimes."
Oman, Pakistan, and Egypt have reportedly been working behind the scenes to keep communications open between Washington and Tehran.
Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical plant
On Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that Israel struck the South Pars petrochemical plant in Asluyeh, which he described as responsible for about 50 percent of Iran's petrochemical production.
Separately, the IRGC confirmed that its head of intelligence, Major General Majid Khademi, was killed earlier Monday. Katz said Khademi was "directly responsible" for the deaths of Israeli citizens.
Six children were among those killed in overnight Israeli-US strikes on Iran, according to Iranian state media. In Haifa, two people were found dead after an Iranian missile struck a residential building, with two more reported missing.
The conflict is spreading beyond Iran and Israel
Iran has continued targeting countries hosting US military bases. Kuwait and the UAE activated air defenses on Monday in response to incoming threats. Over 1,460 people have been killed in Lebanon since the war began, according to the Lebanese health ministry. More than one million Lebanese nationals have been displaced.
Italy's Prime Minister warned that the war is creating energy supply risks for Europe, noting that the Gulf region supplies about 15 percent of Italy's total oil needs. Air BP Italia issued a notice warning of limited jet fuel at four Italian airports through April 9.
An American F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over southwestern Iran on Friday. The pilot was recovered within hours. The weapons systems officer hid in a mountain crevice for over 24 hours with a $60,000 bounty on his head before being rescued by Delta Force and SEAL Team Six.
What this means for markets
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war began on February 28th. This is the single most important chokepoint for global oil supply and its closure is the primary reason oil prices have surged from the mid-$70s to above $90 in recent weeks.
If Trump follows through on striking Iranian energy infrastructure on Tuesday, oil could spike further. Earlier in the conflict, Qatar's energy minister warned that prolonged war could push prices toward $150.
If the 45-day ceasefire proposal gains traction, markets could see a significant relief rally, particularly in energy, airlines, and global shipping stocks that have been battered by the disruption.
The key variables to watch this week are whether Trump's Tuesday deadline results in actual strikes or another extension, whether the ceasefire proposal advances, and whether the strait sees any movement toward partial reopening. Some ships from Japan, Oman, and the French shipping company CMA CGM reportedly crossed the strait recently, potentially in coordination with Iran, which could signal a crack in the blockade.
Energy stocks remain the primary beneficiary of the conflict. Defense stocks continue to hold strength. Everything else remains under pressure until there is clarity on the strait and oil prices.
The VonTrend bottom line
Six weeks in. Three missed deadlines. A ceasefire proposal on the table that neither side has accepted. And a Tuesday evening deadline that could either escalate the conflict dramatically or result in yet another extension.
The market is not trading the war itself. It is trading oil. And oil is trading the Strait of Hormuz. Until that waterway reopens or a credible ceasefire takes hold, volatility is the baseline.
We will be covering this in real time as Tuesday's deadline approaches.
