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Geopolitics

Iran FM Meets Putin as Rubio Rejects Hormuz Deal

Day 59 of the war and the talks are stalling. Iran's foreign minister sat down with Putin today. The US said no to Iran's latest offer on the Strait of Hormuz. Oil ticked higher. Here is what moved and what it means for your portfolio.

By VonTrend Staff

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Iran's foreign minister tours Russia and Pakistan

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Moscow today after stops in Pakistan and Oman. He met with Putin for more than an hour and a half. Araghchi called the meeting "very good."

The two discussed bilateral ties and regional cooperation. The trip signals Iran is shopping for leverage after US envoys cancelled their visit to Islamabad.

Rubio rejects Iran's Hormuz offer

Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its naval blockade and ends the war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no today.

The Strait remains under a de facto Iranian blockade. The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports continues. Both sides are stuck on the same two issues: Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program.

Trump cancels envoy trip but leaves the door open

Trump scrapped a planned visit to Pakistan by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over the weekend. He told reporters Iran can call if it wants to negotiate.

That is not a hard break. It is a power move. Trump is letting Iran come to him, while Araghchi works the back channels through Russia and Pakistan.

Lebanon ceasefire is fraying

Israeli forces killed at least 14 people in Lebanon on Sunday. The strikes broke a US-brokered ceasefire. Hezbollah has not formally responded.

More violence in Lebanon raises the odds of a wider regional flare-up. That is the same risk path that drove oil prices higher earlier this month.

Oil ticks higher again

Brent crude for June rose about 1% today to $106.55 a barrel. WTI moved up with it. The market is reading the Hormuz rejection and the diplomatic stall as bearish for supply.

Brent has now spent most of April above $100. The 13 million barrels a day of effective lost supply, flagged by the IEA last week, is still off the market.

What to watch this week

Watch for any direct call between Tehran and Washington. Trump said the line is open, so a sudden announcement is possible.

Watch Brent. A break above $108 would push gasoline futures higher and pressure airline and trucking stocks. A surprise breakthrough could send Brent toward $95 fast.

Takeaway

Talks are still alive but the gap is wide. If you hold oil or defense exposure, expect another headline-driven week. If you hold broad equities, watch Hormuz as the single biggest swing factor right now.

Author
VonTrend Staff

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