Trash is one of the few businesses where shrinking volume barely seems to matter. The big haulers are collecting a little less garbage than a year ago as construction and industrial activity cool. Yet they keep raising prices by 5% or more, and their cash flow keeps climbing.
The reason sits at the end of every garbage route: the landfill. There are fewer of them, new ones take years to permit, and the ones that remain are charging more. For investors, that has made the big waste companies some of the steadiest cash generators in the market. For households, it shows up as a trash bill that rises a little every year.
- WM filings: core price rose 5.7% in the second quarter even as collection and disposal volume fell 1.8%, and free cash flow jumped 34.5% to $1.10 billion.
- Republic Services filings: core price on total revenue rose 5.3% while volume slipped 1.6%, and the company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $5.525 billion to $5.550 billion.
- Waste Business Journal, via BioCycle: the national average landfill tip fee reached $72.14 a ton in July, up 2.5% from a year earlier, after nearly a year stuck between $70 and $71.
- Environmental Research & Education Foundation: the U.S. had 1,412 active landfills in 2025, about 10% fewer than in 2010, even as landfills' share of municipal trash rose to 71% in 2023 from 67% in 2016.
Fewer landfills, more trash
The Environmental Research & Education Foundation, an industry research group, counted 1,412 active U.S. landfills in 2025, about 10% fewer than in 2010. Over roughly the same stretch, the amount of municipal trash managed nationally rose about 10%. In preliminary data presented this fall and reported by Waste Dive, EREF found that landfills handled 71% of the country's municipal solid waste in 2023, up from 67% in 2016.
Opening a new landfill means years of zoning, environmental review and local opposition, so existing permitted space behaves like scarce real estate. EREF warned that closures could force haulers to ship waste over longer distances, and the pricing data suggest that is already happening.
Tip fees are moving again
The price a hauler or a town pays to dump a ton of waste is called the tip fee. According to the Waste Business Journal Waste Price and Volume Index, as reported by BioCycle in September, the national weighted-average landfill tip fee reached $72.14 a ton in July, up 2.5% from a year earlier. That followed nearly a year in which the average sat in a narrow $70 to $71 range. Daily landfill volume rose 3.0% to about 1.067 million tons.
The regional picture tells the real story. The Northeast is the most expensive place to throw something away, at $99.19 a ton, because it is dense and short on capacity. Northeast landfill volume actually fell 4.2% over the year, which points to waste being trucked or railed out of the region rather than buried locally. The Southeast, already the largest disposal region at nearly 325,000 tons a day, saw volume climb 5.7%, the fastest of any region. Midwest tip fees rose 1.3% to $83.63 a ton.
The biggest jump came in the Pacific region, where tip fees climbed 8.2% to $80.29 a ton. Washington posted the steepest state-level increase in the country at 16.6%.
Transfer stations, where trucks unload so waste can be consolidated for the long haul, are capturing more of the money. They averaged $83.24 a ton, roughly 15% above the landfill average, and their volume grew 4.7%. "Capacity constraints in the Northeast are leading to even more waste exported to the Midwest and Southeast," Jim Thompson Jr., president of Waste Business Journal, told BioCycle.
Pricing power, even with less volume
Second-quarter reports from the three largest haulers followed the same script: higher prices, fewer tons, better margins.
WM, the largest, grew revenue 4.0% to $6.68 billion. Core price, its measure of increases on the existing customer base, rose 5.7%, while collection and disposal volume fell 1.8%. Excluding last year's wildfire cleanup work, landfill volumes actually rose 1.7%. Adjusted operating EBITDA reached $2.07 billion, a 30.9% margin, up from an adjusted 30.5% a year earlier. Free cash flow jumped 34.5% to $1.10 billion, and the company returned $1.04 billion to shareholders through $659 million of buybacks and $379 million of dividends.
Republic Services grew revenue to $4.43 billion from $4.24 billion. Core price rose 5.3% on total revenue and 6.4% on the related business, while volume declined 1.6%. Earnings per share rose to $1.84 from $1.75, and Republic raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to $5.525 billion to $5.550 billion on revenue of $17.2 billion to $17.3 billion.
Waste Connections, which focuses on mostly exclusive and secondary markets, posted the biggest headline price gain. Total solid waste price rose 6.7%, made up of 5.6% core price and 1.1% from fuel and material surcharges, while solid waste volumes fell 1.9%. Revenue rose 6.4% to $2.56 billion, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 32.8%, and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $10.02 billion to $10.05 billion.
The common thread: these companies are pricing ahead of their own cost inflation and letting low-margin tons walk away. WM trimmed its 2026 revenue outlook by about 0.6% on lighter volume, to $26.275 billion to $26.475 billion. Yet it raised its expected adjusted EBITDA margin by 20 basis points to 31.0% to 31.2%, and it guides to adjusted operating EBITDA of $8.15 billion to $8.25 billion and free cash flow of $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion this year.
The parts that are not following the script
Not every line is moving up. Recycled materials have softened: WM's blended single-stream recycled commodity price averaged about $75 a ton in the quarter, down from about $84 a year earlier. Renewable fuel credits known as RINs averaged $2.33 versus $2.53, and natural gas fell to $2.23 per million British thermal units from $2.81, both weighing on renewable gas sales.
Even so, WM's newer investments are starting to pay. Renewable energy revenue rose to $157 million from $115 million, and adjusted EBITDA from recycling and renewable energy combined grew about 32.5%, or $40 million. The company finished three new renewable natural gas plants and a new recycling facility in Denver that can handle about 60,000 tons a year. Healthcare Solutions, the former Stericycle business, was the soft spot, with revenue down 1.2% to $638 million.
Why the shares have lagged the business
Investors often treat waste stocks as bond proxies, owned for steady, utility-like cash flow. That cuts both ways. With long-term rates staying higher for longer, investors can earn solid income from Treasuries without business risk, and the premium valuations these companies carried earlier in the decade have compressed. The fundamentals have kept grinding higher.
For long-term investors, that disconnect is the interesting part. The business rests on assets that are very hard to copy: permitted landfill space, transfer networks and long municipal contracts, many with annual price escalators. WM and Republic have raised their dividends for years, backed by growing free cash flow. They are not high-yield stocks, but they have been dependable dividend growers.
What investors should watch
The third-quarter calendar starts next week. Waste Connections reports after the market close on Oct. 21, with its call the next morning. WM follows after the close on Oct. 27, with a call on Oct. 28. Republic Services reports after the close on Oct. 29.
Three questions matter most. First, does core price hold in the 5% to 6% range as inflation cools, or do customers and towns start pushing back harder at renewal time? Second, are volumes stabilizing? Third, what do the companies say about 2027? Early commentary on next year's pricing may matter more than the quarter itself.
What it means for your household
For many homeowners, the trash bill is buried inside property taxes, a utility bill or an HOA fee, so increases are easy to miss. But the forces above flow straight through. When a town's hauling contract is renewed, the bid reflects higher disposal costs, longer drives to an open landfill and years of rising labor and truck costs. Many contracts also include automatic annual increases.
A few steps help. Read your rate notice: many towns publish their solid waste rates, and some offer a smaller cart at a lower monthly price. If you pay a private hauler, ask about smaller carts or a discount for paying a year ahead. Bulk items and dump runs are where tip fees hit hardest, so check whether your town holds free bulk pickup days or drop-off events before paying a junk-removal service.
The bottom line: landfill space is getting scarcer, and the companies that own it have shown they can raise prices even when less trash is coming in. That has made the big haulers steady compounders for patient shareholders, and it means households should expect the trash bill to keep inching up. This article is general information, not personalized financial advice.
