US envoys head to Pakistan
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner fly to Pakistan on Saturday. They will meet with Iran's foreign minister, who arrived today.
Pakistan is the new neutral ground. Turkey hosted earlier rounds. This is the first high-level meeting since Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely.
Oil price swings widen
Brent crude hit $107 a barrel yesterday. Today it fell back to $98.67. That is a swing of more than 8% in 24 hours.
WTI crude sat near $94.75, down about 1.15% on the day. Traders are reacting to every headline out of the talks.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The US Navy blockade continues.
Defense Secretary draws a hard line
Pete Hegseth said today the US will keep the Hormuz blockade "as long as it takes." That is the firmest public stance yet.
It signals Washington wants a full deal before lifting pressure. A quick resolution now looks less likely.
Trump extends Jones Act waiver
Trump granted a 90-day extension to the Jones Act waiver. That lets non-US vessels move oil and gas through domestic waters.
The waiver keeps US fuel prices from spiking too hard. It is a quiet but meaningful move for consumers.
Defense stocks keep climbing
The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF, ticker ITA, is up about 66% over the past year. It tracks major names like Lockheed Martin and RTX.
Global military spending keeps rising. Earnings growth in the sector has been strong.
IEA calls it the biggest energy threat in history
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, spoke to CNBC yesterday. He said 13 million barrels a day of supply are effectively gone.
His exact words: "We are facing the biggest energy security threat in history." That is a strong statement from a cautious voice.
What to watch next
Saturday's talks in Pakistan are the key event. Any signal of progress could push oil prices down fast.
A breakdown could send Brent back above $107 on Monday. Watch Energy Department statements and any Trump posts.
Takeaway
The war is paused. The pressure is not. If you hold oil or defense exposure, expect another volatile week. If you hold broad market positions, watch Hormuz as the key trigger.
