$9 billion

Cisco (CSCO) just raised its full-year AI infrastructure order forecast from $5 billion to $9 billion. The stock surged 17% after the close.

Here is what landed overnight and what to watch today.

Cisco's AI orders changed the math. Revenue hit $15.84 billion, up 12% year over year, beating on both lines. AI infrastructure orders through three quarters totaled $5.3 billion, with management now guiding $9 billion for the full fiscal year. That is nearly double the $5 billion target from just last quarter.

Q4 revenue guidance of $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion cleared the Street's $16.3 billion estimate. Even after the after-hours surge, the stock trades in the low-to-mid 20s on forward earnings.

Arista Networks (ANET), its closest networking peer, trades near 40 times. That valuation gap narrows fast if Cisco's AI order pipeline converts at the rate management is projecting.

A workforce cut of fewer than 4,000 signals where the margin story goes. Revenue up 12%, headcount down 5%. Operating leverage is the second act.

Cerebras starts trading today at $185 a share. The AI chipmaker priced above its $150-$160 range with reported 20x oversubscription, raising $5.55 billion. Implied valuation is near $50 billion.

Cerebras is profitable, which separates it from every other pure-play AI chip IPO this cycle. Its wafer-scale engine approach is a direct architectural bet against Nvidia's GPU model.

First-day trading will tell you whether the market treats this as the next leg of the AI hardware trade or a frothy late-cycle signal. Watch the volume relative to the float.

The H200 stalemate is the real Beijing story. The U.S. cleared roughly 10 Chinese firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, to buy Nvidia (NVDA) H200 chips. Each can purchase up to 75,000 units. Not one has shipped.

Beijing is pressuring buyers to use Huawei's domestic alternative instead. Huang joined the delegation to break the logjam.

If even partial orders move, it reopens a revenue stream that Wall Street's estimates have completely written off. If Beijing holds firm, the domestic AI chip race accelerates and Nvidia's growth path stays entirely ex-China anyway.

Warsh is the Fed chair. Confirmed 54-45 Wednesday evening, the narrowest margin for any confirmed chair since Senate approval became required in 1977. He inherits 3.8% headline CPI, 6% producer inflation, and Brent crude above $105. His first FOMC meeting is June 16-17.

Rate-hike odds have crossed 50% for the first time since the hiking cycle ended. For rate-sensitive names, the clock starts now. Every word of his first public statement will reprice the second half of 2026.

Alibaba swung to an operating loss. BABA reported AI infrastructure spending that overwhelmed margins even as revenue grew 11% on a like-for-like basis after stripping out divested businesses. The balance sheet still holds $75 billion in cash. The question is whether AI spending converts to cloud revenue or just compresses earnings for another year.

Watch today. April retail sales land at 8:30 AM ET. March surged 1.7% month over month, the strongest gain in a year, fueled by a 15.5% spike at gasoline stations.

Applied Materials (AMAT) reports after the close with consensus at $7.69 billion in revenue and $2.68 adjusted EPS. The focus is whether management reaffirms its forecast for 20%-plus equipment spending growth this year. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $454 this week.

The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,444. The Nasdaq hit 26,402, another record.

Brent is near $106. The 10-year yield sits at 4.47% after Tuesday's PPI shock pushed it to a 10-month high. The premarket bid is modestly green on the summit and Cisco's blowout.

That's the read.