AMD reports first-quarter earnings tomorrow after the close. The print lands one week after a sharp selloff in chip stocks. Wall Street wants proof that the AI buildout is still real. AMD has the first chance to deliver it.
May 4, 2026
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Analysts expect AMD to post Q1 2026 revenue of $9.84 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to grow 33% year over year. Last quarter the company beat on both lines. The setup looks similar.
The AI data center segment will get the most attention. AMD signed a multibillion-dollar chip deal with OpenAI last year. That deal is now under fresh scrutiny. The numbers tomorrow will tell investors whether MI300 and MI325 demand is holding up.
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed internal targets for users and revenue. The market reacted hard. AMD shares fell 11% on that headline alone. Nvidia, Broadcom, and Arm Holdings dropped between 2% and 6%.
OpenAI's chief financial officer warned that the company needs to ramp sales to fund its compute bills. That is the spillover risk. If hyperscaler buyers slow down chip orders, the entire AI trade resets lower.
Nvidia reports its fiscal Q1 numbers on May 20. That print sits 16 days after AMD. A clean AMD beat with strong AI guidance gives Nvidia cover. A weak AMD print or soft guidance pulls Nvidia down with it.
Nvidia just reclaimed the $5 trillion market cap mark. Last quarter its revenue rose 73% year over year. The bar is high. AMD tomorrow is the first real-money read on whether that bar is still clearable.
Arista Networks and Broadcom did not fall as hard as the GPU names last week. Their AI revenue is tied to data center buildout regardless of which chip wins. Switches, optical components, and custom ASICs ship either way.
Palantir sits in a different bucket. Its AI revenue is software, not silicon. Strong commercial bookings shielded it from the chip selloff. That bifurcation between hardware and applied AI is now the cleaner read for risk.
Three lines matter most. First, data center revenue growth and the MI accelerator mix. Second, full-year AI accelerator revenue guidance, last set near $7 billion. Third, any commentary on inventory at hyperscaler customers.
If Lisa Su raises the AI accelerator number, expect a relief rally across the chip space. If she holds it flat or reduces it, the OpenAI selloff theme deepens into Nvidia's print on May 20.
AMD is the swing report for the AI trade right now. A beat resets sentiment. A miss validates last week's selloff. Networking names and applied-AI software stocks remain the lower-volatility ways to stay invested. Watch the AI accelerator guidance line tomorrow above all else.