Trump admin says the war is already terminated
Trump notified Congress on March 2, starting a 60-day clock under the War Powers Resolution. That clock ends today.
The White House argues the ceasefire that began April 7 ended direct fire between US and Iranian forces. Officials say the 60-day rule no longer applies. Critics call this a ceasefire loophole.
Congress is split on the deadline date
Some lawmakers say the 60-day window started February 28, when strikes began. By their math, the deadline already lapsed on April 29.
Others read the law to count from March 2, when Trump notified Congress. That puts the deadline today, May 1. The Senate rejected a fresh war powers resolution this week.
Oil prices pulled back hard
WTI crude fell nearly 5% to $100.03 a barrel by mid-morning. Brent dropped 3% to $107.14.
The drop came after Iran sent an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan. Traders read it as a sign that talks may not be dead. Oil had touched a four-year high above $126 yesterday.
Trump keeps the blockade in place
Trump told aides he will keep the US blockade on Iranian ports until Tehran signs a nuclear deal. Tehran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the US lifts the blockade first.
That standoff caps how far oil can fall. Goldman Sachs says Hormuz exports are running at 4% of normal.
What it means for stocks
Energy stocks gave back some of yesterday's gains as oil dropped. Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips all eased lower in early trade.
Defense names also pulled back. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics traded flat to down on the de-escalation news.
Airline stocks caught a bid as jet fuel prices fell. American, Delta, and United all gained on the day.
What to watch next
Three things matter from here. First, whether Iran's new proposal moves talks forward in Pakistan. Second, any new strike headlines from the White House. Third, the next OPEC+ statement on extra barrels.
A real ceasefire deal could push oil back toward $90. A breakdown puts $130-plus oil back on the table.
Takeaway
Today's deadline did not end the war. The White House sidestepped Congress with the ceasefire argument. Oil traders bet on peace, but the blockade and the Hormuz fight still hang over the market.
Energy and defense names have led for ten weeks. That trade only ends when Iran agrees to a real nuclear deal.
