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    GeopoliticsEarningsMacro

    922,000 barrels just went offline

    Iran hit Fujairah. ADNOC shut its biggest refinery. And Palantir just posted the fastest revenue growth since its IPO.

    May 5, 2026

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    That is the daily capacity of the ADNOC refinery in Fujairah that shut down Monday after an Iranian drone sparked a fire at the petroleum zone. Fujairah sits at the end of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, the bypass route that lets UAE crude skip the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Iran just hit the backup plan.

    What matters:

    • Brent crude surged nearly 6% Monday to close at $114.44. WTI settled above $106.

    • Palantir (PLTR) crushed Q1 estimates after the close with revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year over year, and raised full-year guidance to 71% growth.

    • The Dow fell 557 points Monday as the Iran-UAE escalation sent energy prices sharply higher and risk assets lower.

    • The April jobs report lands Friday with markets already pricing in a Fed that cannot cut into oil-driven inflation.

    The Fujairah hit changes the energy calculus.

    Until Monday, the market assumed Hormuz was the chokepoint and Fujairah was the workaround. UAE crude flowed through the overland pipeline to Fujairah's port on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait. That infrastructure handled roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of export capacity.

    Now Iran has demonstrated it can reach both. The refinery shutdown removes 922,000 barrels of daily processing capacity from a facility that was supposed to be the safe route.

    Insurance premiums on Gulf shipping were already elevated. They reprice again today.

    For energy positioning, the names that benefit are producers with zero Gulf exposure. EOG Resources (EOG) runs a pure domestic footprint across the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken with no international operations and a 2.1% dividend yield at current prices.

    ConocoPhillips (COP) generates roughly 60% of production from the Lower 48, with the balance in Canada and Norway, far from Middle East shipping risk. Both trade at single-digit forward earnings multiples while Brent holds above $110.

    Palantir just posted the fastest revenue growth since it went public.

    Revenue of $1.63 billion beat the $1.54 billion consensus by 6%. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 topped the $0.28 estimate. Net income roughly quadrupled to $870.5 million.

    The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $7.65 billion, implying 71% annual growth and crushing the $7.27 billion Street estimate.

    The commercial business is the accelerator. U.S. commercial revenue grew 104% year over year. Total customer count crossed 1,000 for the first time, up 31%. Remaining performance obligations hit $4.45 billion, more than double the year-ago figure.

    Management guided Q2 revenue to $1.8 billion, above the $1.68 billion consensus. Eleven consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth is a streak no other enterprise software company at this scale can match. The stock traded around $144 heading into the print. Options were pricing a 10% move in either direction.

    AMD reports after the close today, and the setup is demanding.

    AMD guided Q1 revenue at roughly $9.8 billion, representing 32% growth. The Street expects adjusted EPS near $1.29. The data center segment is the entire story. AMD's Instinct MI350 GPUs posted record revenue last quarter, and demand for EPYC server processors continues taking share from Intel at an accelerating pace.

    The bar is high. AMD shares surged 64% in April alone, pricing in a strong print and a favorable AI spending outlook. Any softness in data center guidance could give back a chunk of that run. Any beat likely extends it.

    Futures are pointing modestly higher this morning as markets stabilize from Monday's sell-off. The S&P 500 closed Monday at roughly 7,200. The Nasdaq finished around 25,070. The Dow settled near 48,940.

    Gold is trading around $4,560. Bitcoin is near $79,900. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.44%.

    The jobs report Friday is the next macro catalyst. Consensus expects a sharp deceleration from March's 178,000 gain. If the number disappoints into an oil shock that is now hitting Gulf infrastructure directly, the stagflation argument JPMorgan staked out last week gets harder to dismiss.

    See you tomorrow morning.