AMD reports first-quarter earnings tonight after the close. The conference call starts at 5 p.m. Eastern. The stock heads in cooler than it left last week. AMD closed at $341.54 Monday, down 5.27% on the day. That print formed a bearish engulfing candle off recent highs near $360.
May 5, 2026
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The consensus call is $9.84 billion in revenue and EPS near $1.27. That is roughly 33% earnings growth from a year ago.
Data center is the line that matters most. Analysts model that segment around $5.56 billion. Anything above $5.7 billion would surprise the bulls.
The OpenAI miss last week dragged the AI trade. Cathie Wood at ARK trimmed more than $70 million of AMD across her funds in recent days.
Some of the heat came from valuation. AMD is up 59% year to date, and traders took chips off the table before a binary print.
The MI450 GPU launch is the swing factor. CEO Lisa Su has said customers are "anxious" to get MI450 racks into their data centers.
The first one gigawatt of the Meta Platforms six gigawatt deal slots in for the second half of 2026. The first one gigawatt of the OpenAI six gigawatt deal also targets H2 2026. Tonight's call sets the timeline.
AMD's China business cut hard. MI308 sales fell from about $390 million in Q4 to roughly $100 million in Q1.
Management already guided gross margin near 55%, about two points below the prior quarter. The China step-down is the biggest reason. Investors will listen for any sign that gap stops widening.
Micron and Intel trade with AMD on the after-hours headline. A clean beat lifts the whole AI complex into next week.
A guide cut would do the reverse. Nvidia reports two weeks later, and AMD sets the tone for the chip group going in.
D.A. Davidson upgraded AMD to Strong Buy with a $375 target this week. The note flagged the Meta deal and the MI450 ramp as the key catalysts.
The bull case is simple. Beat the data center number, raise the AI accelerator outlook for the year, and tell a clean MI450 story. Do that and $375 looks light.
AMD enters the print with reset expectations and a 5% pullback in the bag. The stock is set up to move hard on data center revenue and MI450 commentary. Watch the 5 p.m. call. The reaction will move the entire AI tape Wednesday morning.