That is the question the after-hours session tried to answer last night, and the market could not make up its mind. Tesla beat on earnings, raised its capex guidance by $5 billion, and then the CEO told investors that roughly 2 million vehicles on the road today will never drive themselves.
What matters:
Tesla (TSLA) reported $0.41 in adjusted EPS versus $0.37 expected but missed on revenue at $22.39 billion versus the $22.64 billion consensus, and the stock gave back an initial 4 percent after-hours gain once management raised 2026 capex to over $25 billion.
Intel (INTC) jumped roughly 3 percent after hours after the Tesla earnings call confirmed plans to use Intel's 14A process node for custom AI chips, and Intel reports its own Q1 after the bell today.
Brent crude crossed back above $100 after Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized two ships and fired on a third in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
Futures are pointing lower this morning after Wednesday's records: S&P 500 at 7,137.90, Nasdaq at 24,657.57, Dow at 49,490.03.
The $5 billion question.
Tesla raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $20 billion to over $25 billion. The money flows into six factories, AI compute infrastructure, battery materials, Cybercab production, Tesla Semi, Megapack 3, Optimus humanoid robot manufacturing, and a new semiconductor fab in Austin.
That spending plan is why the stock gave back its post-earnings pop. Tesla expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026.
For a stock whose valuation depends on revenue streams that do not exist yet, negative FCF is not a rounding error. It is the central risk.
Musk confirmed that Hardware 3, the computer running Full Self-Driving in roughly 2 million Tesla vehicles worldwide, "simply does not have the capability" for unsupervised autonomy. It carries one-eighth the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4.
That is not a software gap. It is a hardware ceiling.
The investment question splits two ways. Tesla owners with HW3 vehicles just learned their car will never be a robotaxi, which caps the addressable fleet for autonomous revenue to newer vehicles only. On the other side, the capex surge signals Tesla is building the infrastructure for a network at scale, with unsupervised operations already running in Austin, Dallas, and Houston.
TSLA closed at $386.42 on Wednesday. After-hours movement was negligible once the capex news settled. Today's session will tell you which side of the spend the market weights more heavily.
Intel caught a lifeline from an unlikely source.
One sentence on the Tesla earnings call moved Intel's stock more than most analyst notes have this year. Tesla confirmed plans to use Intel's 14A process node, its most advanced manufacturing technology, for custom chips.
INTC has surged roughly 74 percent in 2026 on the Terafab joint venture and the $14.2 billion Fab 34 repurchase from Apollo. The stock trades around $68.50.
Today's Q1 report after the bell carries consensus near a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue guided between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion. The foundry story is the only thing that justifies this run. A clean quarter with commentary on new customer wins gives the bulls another quarter of runway.
Oil recrossed the line the market spent two weeks escaping.
Brent settled above $100 for the first time in more than two weeks on Wednesday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized two ships and fired on a third in the Strait, and Abu Dhabi's national oil company CEO said 230 loaded tankers are still waiting inside the Gulf.
The ceasefire is technically indefinite. The blockade is functionally permanent. No direct talks are scheduled.
For energy positioning, the return above $100 Brent reprices Q2 earnings estimates across industrials and transports. Airlines absorb higher fuel costs, manufacturers reprice inputs, and refiners with domestic exposure benefit while those with Gulf shipping dependency face margin compression.
The earnings slate runs deep today.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) reports before the bell with consensus near $6.73 in EPS on roughly $18.2 billion in revenue. With the ceasefire collapsing and defense procurement accelerating, the backlog guide is the line that moves the stock.
Honeywell (HON) follows with expected EPS around $2.31 on revenue near $9.3 billion, implying a revenue decline of roughly 6 percent year over year. The aerospace and defense segment has to carry the quarter while the industrial automation business works through a softer cycle.
Newmont (NEM) reports into the strongest gold backdrop in years. Consensus sits near $2.07 in EPS on roughly $6.77 billion in revenue, a 66 percent earnings jump year over year. Gold around $4,800 per ounce makes even Newmont's rising all-in sustaining costs, guided near $1,680 per ounce, look comfortable.
The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.31 percent. Bitcoin is trading near $74,400.
For today: whether TSLA finds a floor or the capex overhang deepens, Intel's foundry commentary after the bell, and how the defense names trade into a ceasefire that exists in name only.
