That is what General Motors just printed in adjusted earnings per share. The Street expected $2.62. The beat was 41 percent, and a roughly $500 million benefit from the Supreme Court's decision to terminate and refund certain tariff levies did the heavy lifting.
Revenue landed at $43.6 billion, essentially matching the $43.7 billion consensus. But the earnings tell the real story. Adjusted EBIT hit $4.25 billion, up 22 percent year over year. Management raised full-year EBIT guidance by $500 million to a range of $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion.
The tariff math flipped. Instead of absorbing an estimated $750 million to $1 billion in Q1 costs, GM booked a net benefit from the court ruling. The question now is whether that raised guide survives a Q2 where Brent is pushing above $113 and logistics costs keep climbing on the Iran disruption.
What matters:
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 PM ET. No change is expected. The fed funds rate stays at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. This is Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair before his term ends May 15.
Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META) all report after the close. These four names account for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500's market capitalization.
Brent crude has climbed to its highest level since June 2022, marking an eighth straight session of gains. WTI is trading around $99.
Visa (V) beat after the close Tuesday with EPS of $3.31 versus the $3.10 consensus on $11.2 billion in revenue, up 17 percent year over year, the fastest top-line growth since 2013. The board authorized a $20 billion buyback and raised full-year guidance.
Powell's exit matters more than the rate decision.
The rate itself is settled. Futures price 100 percent probability of no change. What matters is the statement language and whatever Powell says in his final press conference at 2:30 PM.
The backdrop is uncomfortable. Brent above $113 is feeding into inflation expectations. The Iran crisis has pushed energy costs to levels that complicate the Fed's path forward. Powell hands the chair to Kevin Warsh in two weeks, a nominee who emphasized Fed independence during his Senate confirmation but who enters with a reputation as more hawkish than the current regime.
If Powell signals concern about oil-driven inflation without committing the next chair, the bond market reads it as a warning. If he stays neutral and defers to incoming leadership, markets price in continuity. The 10-year yield is sitting around 4.35 percent this morning, barely changed, which tells you the bond market expects the second outcome.
Tonight is the real event.
Four of the five largest companies on earth report within an hour of each other. Microsoft is expected to post roughly $4.06 in EPS on about $81.4 billion in revenue, up around 17 percent year over year. Azure growth and AI infrastructure spending are the lines that move the stock.
Alphabet faces the AI spending question more directly. Consensus sits near $2.64 in EPS on about $92.2 billion in revenue. Google Cloud revenue is expected at $18.4 billion, up nearly 50 percent year over year. The capex forecast of $175 billion to $185 billion is what the market will interrogate.
Amazon and Meta round out the slate. AWS revenue consensus sits at $36.8 billion, implying roughly 26 percent year-over-year growth. Meta's revenue guidance implies about 30 percent growth.
Tuesday's OpenAI report is the contrarian setup.
OpenAI missed its own revenue and user growth targets. CFO Sarah Friar reportedly warned colleagues the company could struggle to fund its compute contracts if growth does not accelerate. Oracle (ORCL), which holds a $300 billion five-year computing partnership with OpenAI, dropped 4 percent on Tuesday. Broadcom (AVGO) fell 4 percent. AMD lost 3 percent.
Four companies about to defend a combined $649 billion in 2026 AI capex are reporting into a market that just watched the most prominent AI company admit its spending math is under pressure. If tonight's results show enterprise AI demand is real and accelerating, the OpenAI miss stays a company-specific problem. If the numbers disappoint, it becomes a sector question.
Where things stand.
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,138.80, down 0.49 percent. The Nasdaq fell 0.90 percent to 24,663.80. The Dow slipped 0.05 percent to 49,141.93. Futures are pointing slightly higher this morning.
Brent is trading around $113. WTI is near $99. Gold is sitting around $4,700. Bitcoin is near $76,300. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.35 percent.
Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait remains under review with no indication of acceptance. Strait traffic is running at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict levels. Until that changes, elevated crude is the operating assumption for every Q2 model being built right now.
Ford (F) also reports after the close with consensus near $0.19 in EPS. The automaker faces similar tariff dynamics to GM but announced a leadership change and business restructuring last week, adding uncertainty around forward guidance. Apple (AAPL) follows Thursday.
That's the read.
