The Line It Just Crossed
SpaceX traded down to an all-time low around $132.75 this morning and was changing hands near $133.40 by midday, down about 2% from Tuesday. That puts the stock below $135, the price the deal was struck at on June 11.
That number matters more than the daily move. $135 is what the institutions who received an allocation actually paid. Until today, they were the one group still above water. Now almost nobody is.
The listing itself was the largest in history. SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares at $135 on the Nasdaq on June 12, raising roughly $75 billion. The stock opened near $150, closed its first session at $161.11, and touched $176.52 intraday. It ran to $225.64 by June 16. From that high it is down roughly 41%.
The market value is near $1.74 trillion. At the June peak it was close to $2.95 trillion. Something on the order of $1.2 trillion of market value has come off in about a month.
The Slide Has Not Made It Cheap
This is the part that gets lost in the drawdown.
SpaceX booked $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, up 33% from the year before. Starlink was $11.4 billion of that, roughly 61% of the total, and grew close to 48%. The company also posted a net loss of $4.9 billion for the year.
Put the current market value against those sales and you get about 93 times revenue. Not earnings. Revenue. There are no earnings to divide by.
At the $135 offering price it was near 94 times. At the June high it was near 158 times. A 41% decline took the stock from an extraordinary multiple to a very expensive one. It did not take it to a normal one.
That is the honest read of the last month. The price fell a long way. The valuation did not fall to anywhere most investors would call reasonable, and anyone framing this as a stock that has been de-risked by the drop is looking at the chart instead of the arithmetic.
The Growth Is Real, and It Is Decelerating
None of that makes the business weak. Starlink growing 48% at that scale is genuinely rare, and it is the closest thing to a cash engine in the launch industry.
But the direction of travel is worth watching. Full-year revenue grew 33%. Then, in the first quarter of this year, revenue came in at $4.7 billion and growth slowed to 15%. A multiple near 93 times sales is a bet on reacceleration, not on continuation.
For scale on the private side, Blue Origin has reportedly been raising around $10 billion at a valuation near $130 billion. SpaceX is being valued at more than thirteen times its closest rival. Some of that is Starlink, which Blue Origin has no direct equivalent to. Not all of it.
What to Watch From Here
Two things.
The first is the lockup. SpaceX went public with a staggered structure rather than a single cliff, which spreads the supply out instead of dropping it on one date. The first tranche is reportedly due September 2. Staggered is gentler, but it is not smaller. Employees and early backers holding paper at a fraction of $135 will have tranches coming free into a tape that is already below the offer price, and that is a different decision than selling into $225.
The second is the first real earnings report as a public company. Every number above comes from the filing that took the company public. The market has never seen this business report a quarter with a stock price attached to it, and the gap between 15% growth and a 93 times multiple is exactly what that report has to address.
Until then, the most useful fact about SpaceX is not that it fell below its IPO price. It is that it fell below its IPO price and still costs 93 times sales.
