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Greg Abel's First Big Deal Is an $8.5 Billion Bet That Housing Has Bottomed

Berkshire is buying a homebuilder near a multiyear low at roughly nine times earnings. The first major acquisition under Warren Buffett's successor lands in the most beaten-down corner of the consumer economy.

By Michael Meadows · Editor
Greg Abel's First Big Deal Is an $8.5 Billion Bet That Housing Has Bottomed

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Berkshire Hathaway is paying $72.50 a share in cash for Taylor Morrison, a 24% premium to Friday's close and a takeout valuation of about nine times last year's earnings. The deal values the homebuilder at roughly $6.8 billion in equity and $8.5 billion including debt.

It is the first multibillion-dollar acquisition since Greg Abel took over as chief executive at the start of the year. Warren Buffett remains chairman. Abel just told the market what he thinks of the housing cycle, and he did it by writing a check into the most hated part of it.

A Value Buyer Steps Into a Falling Sector

Taylor Morrison is one of the country's largest homebuilders. In 2025 it closed 12,997 homes at an average price of $597,000, booked $7.76 billion in revenue, and earned $783 million, or $7.77 per share. Gross margin on home closings held at 22.5%.

At the $72.50 takeout price, Berkshire is paying about 9.3 times those trailing earnings and roughly 1.1 times annual revenue on an enterprise basis. Those are not numbers you pay for a growth story. They are the numbers a value buyer pays for a solid business the rest of the market has stopped wanting.

The stock closed Friday at $58.50. It opened today near the deal price and is trading around $71.50. Before the announcement, Taylor Morrison sat below both its 50-day and 200-day average price. Berkshire stepped in while the chart was still pointing down.

The Setup: Housing Got Cheap for a Reason

The reason homebuilders got cheap is no mystery. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 6.5% and is drifting higher this month as the jump in oil prices pushes inflation expectations back up. Higher financing costs price buyers out, slow closings, and squeeze the builders who carry land and construction debt.

First quarter results across the group confirmed the pain. Revenue and earnings fell at most major builders as affordability stayed stretched. The market did what it does with bad near-term numbers. It marked the whole sector down.

D.R. Horton, the largest builder by volume, carries a market value near $41 billion and trades about 21% below its 52-week high. Lennar, the second largest at roughly $23 billion, sits down close to 38% from its high and is flat for the year. PulteGroup has held up better, up around 25% in 2026. The group now trades at high single-digit to low-teens earnings multiples, the kind of valuation that normally shows up at cycle bottoms, not tops.

Why This Is a Berkshire Move, Not a Bailout

Berkshire was already deep in housing before today. It owns Clayton Homes, the largest builder of factory-built homes in the country, and it holds a stake in Lennar. Adding Taylor Morrison gives Abel a large site-built operation he can fold into that base.

Abel has said he expects to unify Berkshire's site-built homebuilding under one platform over time. That is the tell. This is not a one-off trade on a cheap stock. It is the start of a bigger housing position, paid for out of a cash pile that had grown to about $380 billion with nowhere productive to go.

Buffett built his record buying durable businesses when fear made them cheap. Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust and a Berkshire shareholder, framed the logic plainly: the company is betting the cycle turns, and that years of underbuilding have stored up demand that returns once rates ease.

What It Means for the Rest of the Group

The most useful part of this deal for investors who already own builders is the price tag itself. A buyer with Berkshire's discipline just put a number on a homebuilder, in cash, at 9 times earnings. That sets a floor reference for how a deep-pocketed acquirer values these assets right now.

Notably, the rest of the group is not ripping higher on the news. D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup are all roughly flat to slightly lower today. The market is treating this as Berkshire finding one specific bargain, not as a signal that the entire sector is about to re-rate. That gap between one confirmed takeout price and a skeptical tape is where the debate sits.

When a private buyer pays cash for a public company in a depressed sector, it raises a fair question about every comparable name still trading in the open market. If Taylor Morrison was worth $72.50 to Berkshire, the screen of builders trading at similar or lower multiples becomes a list worth a second look.

What to Watch From Here

The deal is expected to close in the second half of the year, so the immediate driver for the group is no longer this transaction. It is rates. Mortgage rates are the single variable that decides whether Abel's timing looks early or perfect.

Three data points land inside the next three weeks: the May jobs report Friday, the June inflation reading on June 10, and the Federal Reserve decision on June 16 and 17. A softer set of numbers eases mortgage rates and validates the bet. A hot set keeps financing expensive and tests the patience even Berkshire is famous for. Either way, the smartest buyer in the market just told everyone where it sees value.

Author
Michael Meadows
Editor

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