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    Market ReportAIEarningsEnergy

    What happens when oil breaks $100?

    Brent is testing that level for the first time since the Strait closed. Shell posted $6.9 billion in Q1 profit. And the week’s heaviest earnings day starts at the bell.

    May 7, 2026

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    Brent crude is flirting with $100 a barrel this morning, a level it has not tested since the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. July futures dropped roughly 8% on Wednesday alone as Iran reviews a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would formally end the conflict and begin a 30-day window to reopen the Strait. WTI is trading around $95.

    Everything that has traded on the assumption of $100-plus oil, from energy equities to Q2 earnings models to the Fed’s inflation calculus, is suddenly in motion.

    What matters: 

    • Shell (SHEL) reported Q1 adjusted earnings of $6.9 billion this morning, beating the $6.36 billion estimate by 8%. The company raised its dividend 5% and announced a $3 billion buyback.

    • Uber (UBER) beat Q1 EPS estimates and jumped 8% after the close Wednesday. Adjusted EBITDA surged 33% to $2.5 billion on trips that grew 20%.

    • McDonald’s (MCD) reports before the bell with the stock at a 52-week low and consensus same-store sales growth of 3.7%.

    • The April jobs report lands Friday with consensus near 165,000 new positions, a pullback from March’s 178,000.

    Shell’s quarter is the last one built on wartime oil.

    Adjusted earnings of $6.9 billion, up 24% year over year, beat the Street by more than half a billion dollars. Cash flow from operations hit $17.2 billion. The 5% dividend raise and $3 billion buyback are built on Q1 conditions when Brent averaged well above $110.

    If Brent settles below $100 through May, those margins compress in Q2. The integrated majors face a positioning shift: the trade that worked from February through April, long production leverage, starts rotating toward names that benefit from lower crude input costs. Refiners with heavy domestic throughput like Phillips 66 (PSX) see their crack spreads widen when crude falls faster than product prices adjust.

    PBF Energy (PBF), a pure-play refiner with zero upstream exposure, sits in the same seat. Both names trade at single-digit forward earnings multiples.

    Uber confirmed the consumer is bending, not breaking.

    Non-GAAP EPS of $0.72 beat the $0.70 estimate. Revenue of $13.2 billion grew 14% but missed the $13.29 billion consensus by less than 1%. Gross bookings hit $53.7 billion, up 21% on a constant currency basis.

    The stock surged 8%.

    For a company that runs one of the most discretionary transactions in consumer spending, that demand level under 4.5% PCE inflation and $100-plus Q1 oil is a resilience signal. Airbnb (ABNB) reports after the close today with consensus near $0.30 in EPS on $2.62 billion in revenue. If ABNB confirms what Uber showed, the consumer discretionary thesis carries into summer, with FIFA World Cup bookings already surging on the platform ahead of the June 11 kickoff.

    The rest of today’s slate tests two other themes.

    CoreWeave (CRWV) reports after the close in its first earnings as a public company. Revenue is expected to roughly double to around $1.97 billion. The company guided full-year 2026 revenue to $12 to $13 billion, implying roughly 140% growth.

    Options are pricing a 17% move. This is the purest test of whether AI infrastructure spending is converting into GPU cloud revenue at scale.

    Coinbase (COIN) follows after the close, two days after cutting 14% of its workforce. Consensus expects $0.36 in EPS on $1.51 billion in revenue, a 26% decline from the year-ago quarter. The layoffs reframe the print: the market will evaluate cost discipline alongside the top line, with subscription and services revenue the key metric.

     Where things stand.

    The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,365.12, a record. The Nasdaq finished at 25,838.94, also a record. The Dow settled at 49,910.59, up 612 points.

    Gold is trading around $4,700. Bitcoin is near $81,500. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.35%.

    Futures are flat this morning, holding at records while oil reprices on deal momentum and the week’s heaviest earnings day arrives. If the Iran memo produces a framework by the weekend and Friday’s jobs number comes in soft, the rate-cut conversation reopens for the first time in months.